Improved climate change projections for SE Asia

“This study will provide the first detailed regional information about climate change to assist Indonesian agencies to make better informed decisions about how to respond to these potential changes,” says CSIRO climate modeller, Dr Jack Katzfey.

The workshop is part of a year-long project being carried out by the CSIRO Climate Adaptation National Research Flagship and the Indonesian Bureau of Meteorology (BMKG).

“Northern Australia and Indonesia share strong similarities between their monsoon climates and it is a natural extension to share our knowledge of future climate scenarios.”

The scientists are using climate models developed by CSIRO to convert broad-scale climate change projections for south-east Asia into local-scale regional projections.

Regional climate simulations were completed at 60 km resolution over Indonesia using six global climate models for the periods: 1971-2000, 2041-2060, 2081-2100.
 
“We already have broad-brush international projections with coarse data for Indonesia but, like all regions we want to know what is likely to occur in our own backyard,” Dr Katzfey says.

Dr Katzfey and CSIRO colleague Dr John McGregor are working with a team from the BMKG to provide:

• Country-scale climate-projections for Indonesia based on six downscaled simulations from the IPCC Fourth Assessment climate simulations;
• Expert training to enable Indonesian scientists to operate CSIRO’s regional climate models to provide and interpret additional climate data on a regional scale;
• Training for scientists to identify the implications of climate scenarios and develop appropriate country-based responses, including targeted responses to extreme events such as monsoons, rainfall changes, temperature changes and typhoons.

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